The Role of Oil Price Fluctuations on the USD/EUR Exchange Rate: An ARDL Bounds Testing Approach to Cointegration
Journal ArticleThis paper studies the impact of global oil price fluctuations on global exchange rates of the dollar against the euro (USD/EUR), using the bounds testing approach method to test co-integration, error correction model, in the framework of the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) by Pesaran et al. (2001) during the period from 1990 to 2016. Moreover, the results of the analysis showed a positive balance relationship between the two variables in the long and short term. On the other hand, our estimates suggest that, 1% depreciation in the dollar leads to 0.58 rises in the oil price in the long run. The error correction results show that coefficient of (ECM) = -0.43, imply that deviation from the long-term exchange rate is corrected by 43% by the following year. Based on the findings of the study, the researcher recommended the need for coordination between movements of oil prices and financial policy for what needs economic political mechanism of delicate balance.
Nagmi Moftah Moftah Aimer, (10-2019), Journal of Asian Business Strategy: Journal of Asian Business Strategy, 7 (1), 13-22
The Long Run Effects of Oil Prices on Economic Growth: The Case of Libya
Journal ArticleThe aim of this paper is to study the impact of price shocks on economic growth in Libya using a sample of annual observations from 1990 to 2016. We apply autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models for the analysis of long-run relations between variables. Our estimates suggest that oil price increases have a statistically significant and positive effect on the economic growth of Libya. However, that the positive change 1% in the shock of crude oil prices has a positive impact on Libya's GDP by 0.29%. In addition, the error correction (ECM) results showed that 68% of the imbalance from the previous year's shock converges to the long-term equilibrium in the current year. Overall, the results indicate that crude oil prices have had a positive impact on economic growth in the long-term, while trade openness and imports have had a negative impact on economic growth. Finally, to overcome the impact of fluctuations in oil prices, long-term plans should be initiated to diversify the Libyan economy and gradually reduce dependence on the oil.
Nagmi Moftah Moftah Aimer, (09-2019), International Journal of Social and Administrative Sciences: Asian Economic and Social Society, 4 (2), 232-242
قياس مشاكل وصعوبات انتاج وتسويق البحث العلمي لدى أعضاء هيأة التدريس جامعة الزاوية
مقال في مجلة علميةانظر المجلة
رجب عبدالسلام العموري العموري، (06-2019)، تونس: مجلة الباحث، 22 (1)، 249-278
أساليب إدارة الصراع التنظيمي وأثرها على الأبداع الإداري لدى مديري مدارس التعليم الثانوي
مقال في مجلة علميةانظر المجلة
رجب عبدالسلام العموري العموري، عمر شعبان أبولقاسم العوامة، (03-2019)، جامعة الزاوية - ليبيا: مجلة كليات التربية، 13 (1)، 379-411
THE IMPACT OF OIL PRICE SHOCKS ON THE ECONOMIC GROWTH OF LIBYA: AN ARDL-BOUND TESTING APPROACH
Journal ArticleThis paper examines how oil price shocks affect the Libyan economicgrowth over the period from 1990 to 2016. Using the autoregressive distributedlag (ARDL) bounds test, the study finds that oil price changes affect theLibyan economic growth. Oil prices are important in explaining GDP movements.Moreover, this test suggests that oil price has a long-term positive impact oneconomic growth. Our empirical results indicate a two-way causal relationshipbetween oil prices and GDP, while a one-way causal relationship arises fromimports and trade openness to oil prices. However, oil price shocks do notappear to have a statistically significant effect on the trade balance. Theresult shows that the country should formulate appropriate energy conservationpolicies taking into cognizance of her peculiar condition.
Nagmi Moftah Moftah Aimer, (03-2019), Journal of Empirical Economics and Social Sciences: Journal of Empirical Economics and Social Sciences, 2 (1), 59-81
دور استراتيجيات التسويق العكسي في ترشيد استهلاك الطاقة الكهربائية
مقال في مجلة علميةانظر المجلة
رجب عبدالسلام العموري العموري، (02-2019)، ليبيا: مجلة دراسات الانسان والمجتمع، 7 (1)، 69-99
The impact of exchange rate volatility on stock prices: A case study of Middle East countries
Journal ArticleThe exchange rate is not only a determinant of economic activity but also a factor affecting the performance of stock market. In other words, the exchange rate volatility makes an impact on the stock market of any economy. This study has attempted to determine the relationship between exchange rate and stock prices of Middle East countries, using the GARCH model for the period Jan-2004 to Apr-2018, to make an econometric analysis. In this context, various time series analysis and Granger causality test were applied. Results of analyses show a strong evidence of causation running from exchange rate to stock prices; implying several variations such as Dubai stock prices experienced exchange rate volatility while the Saudi stock market witnessed a unidirectional relationship running from stock prices to exchange rate implying that variations the Saudi exchange rate determines the stock prices volatility. Finally, in the Egyptian stock market, no relationship between the exchange rate and stock prices was witnessed which means that changes in Egyptian stock prices cannot be explained by the volatility in the exchange rate.
Nagmi Moftah Moftah Aimer, (01-2019), Asian Development Policy Review: Asian Economic and Social Society, 7 (2), 98-110
Estimating the impact of oil rents on the economic growth of the OPEC countries
Journal ArticleThis study aimed to know the effect of oil rents on the economic growth of in a panel of nine selected oil exporting countries by the panel integration for 1997 to 2015. Our findings suggest that there is one-way strong causality running from oil rents to GDPG and foreign direct investment. Also, the long run elasticity coefficient reveals that the 1% change in oil rents will change the GDP growth by 0.46%. The results of the coefficient (ECM) are-0.1459 meaning that system corrects its previous period disequilibrium at a speed of 14.5% annually to reach at the steady state. OPEC countries should pursue an integrated economic policy by diversifying sources of GDP and not relying solely on oil revenues because the latter is heavily affected by fluctuations in world oil prices and the exchange rate against local currencies.
Nagmi Moftah Moftah Aimer, (04-2018), European Journal of Management and Marketing Studies: European Journal of Management and Marketing Studies, 3 (1), 110-121
The Effect of Information and Communication Technology on Economic Growth
Journal ArticleEvaluating the sources of economic growth is obviously important, and numerous attempts have been made to judge the impact of many different factors on economic growth. Since some empirical studies have reported that information technology (IT) is one of the important factors in economic growth, this paper explores the impact of ICT on the economic growth of nine Arab countries (United Arab Emirates, Jordan, Bahrain, Algeria, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, Lebanon, Morocco, and Oman) during the period 1997-2015. To achieve the objective of the study, a methodology was used to mix time series data with a (Panel data Approach) model by applying Fixed Effects Model (FEM) and Random Effects Model (REM). The results of the study showed that ICT has a positive statistical impact on economic growth. This means that increased Internet usage is leading to increased GDP growth. In order to increase GDP growth, Arab governments should continue to invest in ICT for their positive impact on economic growth.
Nagmi Moftah Moftah Aimer, (10-2017), International Journal of Research in Business, Economics and Management (IJRBEM): International Journal of Research in Business, Economics and Management (IJRBEM), 1 (2), 57-68
THE IMPACT OF ELECTRONIC COMMERCE ON LIBYA'S ECONOMIC GROWTH
Journal ArticleThe purpose this present article is to investigate the influence of the e-commerce on Libya's economic growth. This is achieved through the use of vector autoregressive (VAR) and co-integration techniques. In this respect the relationship between variables will be analyzed by using annual data for 1999 to 2015. The results suggest that both series are integrated with order one I (1), the existence of a long-term relationship between e-commerce and economic growth. It is estimated that the development of e-commerce has a statistically significant and positive influence on Libyan economic growth. Finally, this article proposes the appropriate e-commerce development approach to make e-commerce have a bigger role in Libya economic growth.
Nagmi Moftah Moftah Aimer, (04-2017), CLEAR International Journal of Research in Commerce & Management: CLEAR International Journal of Research in Commerce & Management, 8 (4), 62-62